The Drivers With the Highest Chances of Winning the 2025 Championship

We are now over halfway through the 2025 NASCAR Playoffs, and as of now, nobody has truly separated themselves as the true Championship favorite. However, there are certainly some drivers who have shown a much higher likelihood of winning the Championship than others, and today, we will discuss those drivers.

• Christopher Bell – at the start of this year, Bell was looking like the clear favorite for the Championship as he won three straight races in the first four races of the year. Ever since, Bell had noticeably taken a step backward and just looked like a normal driver who runs Top 5 in points. After the start of the Playoffs over a month ago, Bell looks more like a championship threat again. Bell has finished in the Top 10 in five of the six Playoff races, including a win in the Bristol Night Race. Toyota has been the dominant manufacturer through these first six races, and with being the Spring Phoenix winner this year, Bell has a great chance at scoring his first Championship.
• Chase Briscoe – Bell may be coming alive in these Playoffs, but the guy who has REALLY come alive over the course of the season by being the most consistent driver in the Playoffs is Briscoe. Ever since winning Pocono, Briscoe has had 9 Top 10 finishes, including 4 second-place finishes and five straight Top 10 finishes to start the Playoffs. To make things even better, he kicked off the Playoffs with a DOMINATING win in the Southern 500, where he led over 300 laps. He has also scored more points than anyone else in these Playoffs by accumulating 233 points in the six Playoff races. If anyone is a serious dark horse to win the Championship, it is Chase Briscoe.
• Kyle Larson – ever since the Indy 500/Coke 600 Double Disaster, Larson had just simply been good, which is not what anyone would expect from a driver like Larson. Thankfully, for Larson fans, he has started to look like his usual self ever since the start of the playoffs. Larson had a winning car at Gateway before getting damage on a restart that ruined his race, and he showed Top 5 speed in every race of the Round of 12. Excluding SVG, he had the best car at the Roval and would have won the race if SVG was not in the field. The tracks in the round of 8 are all tracks Larson has either had success at in the past or been solid at in the Gen 7 car, so Larson has a high chance of making the Championship Four again and winning his second Championship.
• Ryan Blaney – if there is anyone to count on making the Championship Four and winning the Championship, it is Blaney. During the regular season, Blaney was arguably the fastest car, but he had way too many issues and poor finishes that kept him from winning the regular-season championship. While Blaney has not been the fastest in the playoffs, he has the best shot of being champion this year with how the Round of 8 lines up for him. He had one of the best cars at Las Vegas in the spring this year, he is arguably the best Superspeedway racer in Cup, and Martinsville is a track that fits right into his wheelhouse. Even better, Phoenix is another track that fits Blaney and his driving style, and there is no one better than Blaney there, so expect big things from Blaney in these remaining four races of the year.

Technical Advisor – Scott Korowotny